The recent announcement of the resumption of negotiations between the United States and Iran on the nuclear deal has once again made headlines.

The apprehension regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the involvement of the United States in the negotiations has been a topic of discussion in almost every international meeting.

At the recent G20 summit, the hope of nuclear negotiations with Iran was raised. This came in the form of a joint statement from world leaders regarding the stalled negotiations and the role of the United States in the JCPOA.

They declared this “We welcome President Biden’s clearly demonstrated commitment to bring the United States back into full compliance with the JCPOA [joint comprehensive plan of action] and remain in full compliance, as long as Iran does the same. “

The JCPOA was born in 2015, after numerous rounds of negotiations between the leaders of the P5 + 1 and Iran.

It was under the Trump administration that the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the agreement as well as Iran’s future role in upholding the principles of the agreement.

In the aftermath of the pullout, the United States reimposed the sanctions against Iran as before the deal and they are tougher in some ways, as countries that have deals with Iran have also been threatened with sanctions.

Joe Biden as a member of the Obama White House, presidential candidate (2020) and as president, tried to push for the return of the United States to the JCPOA.

Making progress with Israel is going to be an uphill battle given the historical hatred on both sides, adding to that Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah makes any rapprochement impossible.

However, Iran’s non-compliance with the deal has made this difficult with their ballistic missile tests as well as their regional posture.

According to the IAEA from September 2021 report, Iran has enriched uranium to levels significantly above those allowed by the 2015 agreement, Iran has also prevented international inspectors from monitoring the facilities. Tehran also did not cooperate with the IAEA investigation into traces of uranium at undeclared sites.

Although Iran continues to assert that the nature of the nuclear program is purely civilian and has no interest in researching a nuclear weapon; their actions in the face of enrichment paint a different story.

If Iran were to have access to a nuclear weapon, Tehran would need to attach the warhead to an effective launch system. This is where their ballistic missile program would help them.

The report portrays a security crisis for US regional strategy, with Iran’s growing enrichment, it is cutting its breakout time. This will surely affect the regional balance and the role of the United States.

In addition, negotiations with Iran are subject to a timetable. The United States has now more or less withdrawn from Afghanistan and there is a deficit in terms of American power (both hard and soft) and prestige.

The vacuum created by the withdrawal created an avenue for Iran, this is especially true when it comes to advancing economic interests for both.

Although negotiations were seen as a priority, Afghanistan occupied much of the president’s time on matters relating to foreign and security policy.

The withdrawal has also created a need for victory for the administration’s so-called foreign policy ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

On Iran, the Biden administration has said all options are on the table. However, it is questionable whether they are ready to put this into practice.

At the same time, the administration invests its political capital in the negotiation process. But Biden is cautious and walks a tightrope by not saying too much but just enough to make negotiations possible and effectively put the ball in Tehran’s court.

This strategic ploy is important to Biden given his troubles at home. The schism between Democrats and Republicans in Congress has come to a head b, so this strategy is an effort to appease both sides of the aisle – Democrats, who want the deal and Republicans, who want a tougher deal , as well as saving face if the negotiations are unsuccessful.

For Iran, the newly imposed sanctions on Iran’s drone program, in addition to the series of past sanctions against Iran, have to some extent forced the leaders to begin the negotiation process.

The West has made it clear that sanctions relief will only be discussed if Iran agrees to abide by the deal (according to statements by US and EU leaders).

On the other hand, it can be argued that it is easy to see that although these sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy, they are proceeding lightly, which begs the question of whether coercive tactics like sanctions change the situation. state behavior.

In addition to the sanctions, the former supporters of the regime are now ambivalent about their support for Tehran. Beijing has been hesitant to be too overt in its direct financial support for Tehran, given the administration’s unexpected hard line.

Moreover, Russia, too, does not want to sacrifice its relations with the Middle East for the benefit of its relations with Iran; these include the extension of the 20-year agreement between the two.

The IRGC, which backs the Supreme Leader and is tasked with warding off support for the regime as well as expanding Iran’s influence in the region, faces a crisis when it comes to funding its international network of agents.

Regional actors play an important role in making or breaking the deal. These actors, especially Israel, have great domestic influence in the United States. US allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel, among others, play a vital role; this is probably one of the reasons why Tehran has moved closer to regional heavyweights like Saudi Arabia.

The thaw in Iran-Saudi relations began recently with the Raisi administration. Although bilateral talks appear to be deadlocked, they have nevertheless started.

On the other hand, a relationship with the other ally of the United States – Israel seems to be more sour than ever. Israel is committed to preventing a nuclear Iran and its position on the nuclear deal has not changed. They support the West’s constructive engagement with Iran; however, the outcome of such engagement should lead to a better deal than that of 2015.

Moreover, the multilateral approach to negotiation is the only approach sought by the allies of the United States. As the JCPOA is still in place, the use of military force will be difficult as it will drag the United States and the region into a protracted war that will definitely lack support in the Security Council.

Making progress with Israel is going to be an uphill battle given the historic hatred on both sides, coupled with Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah makes any rapprochement impossible.

It is in these circumstances and in the regional environment that Israel is preparing to conclude agreements with the countries of the region. These are mainly trade issues, but it is important nonetheless.

Tehran’s regional fears will play a role both internationally and nationally. The United States will, as in the past, have to promise security measures to its regional allies.

For the Biden administration, negotiating with Iran is sometimes seen not only as the best option, but as the only option.

Using hard power in terms of military might to bring Iran to the negotiating table or to end its nuclear program is not an option.

This is the result of regional difficulties as well as the increased involvement of the United States in the region and the opening of the allies of the United States as well as Washington to further attacks by terrorists and terrorist organizations.

Moreover, the multilateral approach to negotiation is the only approach sought by the allies of the United States. As the JCPOA is still in place, the use of military force will be difficult as it will drag the United States and the region into a protracted war that will definitely lack support in the Security Council.

The author holds a doctorate. from the School of International Studies, JNU. She was a 2017-2018 Fulbright-Nehru Doctoral Fellow at the American University of Washington DC. His area of ​​interest is US-Iranian relations.