How Iran will spend the funds it receives from a nuclear deal

Any return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal will likely enrich the Iranian regime with billions of dollars in revenue, as it lifts sanctions on Tehran’s energy, banking and shipping sectors, reintegrates the government in the global financial system, will improve legitimacy in the world, increase its oil exports and stimulate foreign investment, especially in the energy sector. But the most important question for politicians and policymakers is how will the Iranian regime spend this huge amount of extra revenue?
First of all, it is important to emphasize that we should not expect the additional income to benefit ordinary Iranians and increase their standard of living. As Ashkan, a construction worker and father of three who lives in the capital Tehran with his family, said: “People had a lot of hope in 2015 when the nuclear deal was done. Officials made us believe that the nuclear deal would also be good for the people. But after the nuclear deal, inflation kept rising, wages stayed the same, the value of the currency kept falling, the price of goods kept rising, unemployment stayed high and people were always in financial difficulty during the nuclear era. agreement until the US government of (Donald) Trump quits the nuclear deal.
In addition, expect human rights abuses and domestic repression against those who oppose the regime’s policies to increase across Iran, as hardliners tend to be those gaining more power as a result of the lifting of sanctions. The situation is expected to be much worse this time around, as hardliners control all three branches of government: the judiciary, the legislature and the executive.
The regime will likely use the extra revenue first to increase its military budget. This scenario happened in 2015 after the initial JCPOA was signed. Iran immediately increased its military budget by $1.5 billion, from $15.6 billion to $17.1 billion. At the time, the Iranian Student News Agency quoted Mohammed Reza Pour Ebrahimi, a member of the Parliament’s Economic Affairs Committee, as saying, “In addition to the approved figures, $1.5 billion has been allocated to support the defense of the country and this amount was approved by this committee.
Regionally, a nuclear deal will likely intensify Iranian interference in the internal affairs of other countries, despite what supporters of the deal argue. Recall that former US President Barack Obama promised that an agreement with the Iranian government would bring positive changes. To push through the JCPOA in 2015, its proponents held out hope that dialogue with Iran’s leaders would moderate government behavior. For example, Obama pointed out in an interview with National Public Radio that as a result of the nuclear deal, Iran could make “different decisions that are less offensive to its neighbors; that he tone down the rhetoric of his vocal opposition to Israel. And, you know, that’s something we should celebrate.
But the international community has witnessed the opposite. For the first time, Hezbollah has grown bolder and admitted to receiving financial and military aid from Iran. Furthermore, Tehran’s military involvement in Iraq has steadily increased. The Iranian regime has also become more forceful in supporting and assisting the Syrian government militarily and economically, as well as providing intelligence and playing an advisory role.
Sanctions relief, following a return to the nuclear deal, would help Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite Quds Force, which focuses on extraterritorial operations, strengthen regime proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militias.

Any new deal will likely intensify Iranian interference in the internal affairs of other countries, despite what supporters of the deal argue.

Dr Majid Rafizadeh

Finally, don’t expect the Iranian regime to rein in its nuclear program and fully abide by the terms of the nuclear deal. After the 2015 agreement came into force, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, revealed in its 2016 annual report that the Iranian government had followed a “clandestine to obtain illicit nuclear technology and equipment from Germans. companies “to what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level”.
In conclusion, the influx of billions of dollars of additional revenue into the Iranian regime’s treasury as a result of a new nuclear deal will most likely be channeled to the IRGC, the Al-Quds Force and the militias and proxies of the Iranian regime. Iran, which will strengthen their military adventurism in the region and interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

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