Reopening of economies drives up demand for oil
Global oil demand is picking up with the reopening of major economies amid cautious supply from OPEC + and restrictions in the US shale, Barclays said Friday.
Despite the possibility of a return of Iranian oil supply and the resurgence of COVID in parts of Asia, global demand for oil is “healing” and oil stocks are expected to normalize over the next two to three months, the British bank said in a note released by Friday. Reuters.
Barclays expects the global market to run a deficit of around 1.5 million barrels per day (b / d) in the second half of this year.
“Extensive mobility restrictions in the region [Asia] could slow the recovery in demand somewhat, but it seems unlikely that it will block it for an extended period, given the largely positive results from immunization programs around the world, ”Barclays analysts noted.
The bank estimates Brent Brent prices to average $ 66 per barrel in 2021, while WTI Crude is expected to average $ 62 per barrel this year.
These price predictions were very close to actual fast prices early on Friday, when Gross WTI traded 1.5% to just over $ 63, and Brent raw was also up more than 1 percent to $ 66.00 at 7:42 a.m. EDT, as the US dollar fell.
Last month Goldman Sachs said it expects to see “biggest increase in oil demand ever“Over the next six months. Goldman Sachs analysts see oil demand jump 5.2 million bpd over the next six months.
Despite recent bearish concerns surrounding The COVID crisis in India, investment banks, along with OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), are optimistic that global oil demand is expected to rise sharply in the second half of this year.
Surplus stocks of oil for the past year have been almost exhausted, the IEA said earlier this month, noting that “the widening gap between supply and demand sets the stage for further easing of OPEC + supply cuts or even to larger stock runs. ”
Barclays acknowledges that a return to Iranian oil supplies could lead OPEC + to slow the pace of easing cuts to prevent oil prices from falling too much.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for OilUSD
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