The agreement with Iran | Al-Arabiya English
The leaks suggest that the comprehensive nuclear deal between major states and Iran largely resembles its predecessor and doesn’t give much cause for hope. If there are clauses kept secret by both parties, it won’t be long before an angry politician or investigative journalist finds out about them, as happened with the previous agreement. The secrets of this deal shocked many observers when they were revealed in 2015.
The Americans and the Iranians have been at the negotiating table in Vienna for about eighteen months. Now Iran’s Supreme Leader has just weeks to make up his mind. Time is running out and the ghost of Donald Trump and the GOP is casting its shadow over the congressional midterm elections next November. If the Democrats lose the majority in Congress and the Senate, which is likely, reaching the agreement could prove difficult, if not impossible. With the palpable sense of urgency in Vienna, the marathon of negotiations came to a halt. But, in fact, agreements have been reached on most of the main issues; all that remains is to iron out the details where the devil is hiding.
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The result is likely to be a flawed deal, whatever arrangements are made to that end: whether it’s Iran conceding its IRGC delisting demands, South Korea handing over $7 billion to Iran, or the Europeans releasing all convicted criminals associated with the regime. In my opinion, these concessions can certainly be seen as flaws in the agreement, but they are not as dangerous as Iran’s lax attitude towards Iran’s extraterritorial military activities in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Syria and Afghanistan. It will only add fuel to the fire.
The conclusion of the agreement, the lifting of sanctions and the silence on Iran’s military operations outside its territory will lead to an escalation of tensions and violence in the region, and the repercussions will extend to the United States and Europe. Conflicts in the region will return, as will international alignments, while Sino-Russian activities in the region will only expand further.
A source close to the talks says the deal’s flaws stem from its urgency, with both sides scrambling to reach a practical deal; which is not burdened with inapplicable covenants. During the 2013 negotiations, the Obama team found itself in the same predicament, striving to reach an agreement within 20 months. The negotiations were to be concluded before the end of Obama’s presidential term, while in Iran the Supreme Leader enjoyed the privilege of sitting on the throne forever, with all the time and powers he might need.
Today, the negotiating team finds itself in the same boat. They set out limited goals to achieve in the limited time the Biden administration has before the midterm elections. Some voices within the president’s Democratic party have already spoken out against a potentially weak deal. In fact, 18 Democratic members of Congress have said they will not remain silent if the deal fails to meet the minimum requirements to tackle Iran’s organizational terrorism and wars in the region. Then came the attempted assassination of writer Salman Rushdie by a man of Lebanese descent – likely an IRGC and Hezbollah wolf – to corner the US administration, while Iran denies any connection to the crime.
What about the assumption that Iran doesn’t want the deal, but instead goes to the negotiations determined to prevaricate and turn the talks into a long and laborious process for the other side?
Failure of the deal will mean continued suffering and blockade of Iran unless a country like China comes to its rescue and strengthens its economy with long-term contracts to buy its oil and finance its military institutions. In any case, an incomplete agreement is worth just as much as a failed agreement; both cause an escalation of the conflict.
A weak deal has repercussions. Today, China maintains good relations with all parties to the conflict in the region on behalf of its economic interests. Yet his growing dispute with Washington will make him prioritize his political calculations over his immediate economic interests.
Although Beijing is a de facto partner of Tehran, China is likely to move closer to Gulf Arab states, which may view the deal as a threat to their security if the Iranians sign the deal and open up to states. -United. But such a reversal in international relations is difficult to predict.
One of the implications of the nuclear deal is its impact on the future of the Iranian regime. The current domestic situation suggests a potential change in approach or leadership. Trump’s withdrawal from the deal has led Iranians to public disagreement, with Iranian conservatives accusing former President Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Zarif of ‘foolishness’ and ‘treason’, even though the deal was concluded with the Supreme Leader’s approval and blessing. .
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The opinions expressed by the authors in this section are their own and do not reflect the views of Al Arabiya English.