The clock is ticking on Iran nuclear talks with bickering between the sides
(Bloomberg) – Diplomats trying to salvage a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran have been arguing around the clock over the sticking points of a deal that could bring Iranian oil back to the world market at a critical time for the economy world.
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EU and US officials exceeded their goal of reaching a deal in February and are now warning that there are only days left to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of negotiations in Vienna. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the diplomatic stakes.
“What we want now is an agreement in Vienna. Now is the time to decide,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Wednesday during a press conference with his Israeli counterpart in Jerusalem.
Oil has jumped to $110 a barrel since the start of Russia’s military campaign and OPEC+, a group of major oil exporters plus Russia, offered little significant relief in a low-key meeting on Wednesday. sticking to a predefined plan for a modest increase in supply.
If nuclear talks fail, crude could jump even higher as many traders expect Iranian barrels to return to global markets this year. Iran, which holds the world’s second-largest reserves of natural gas and fourth-largest reserves of crude, could likely increase exports by around 1 million barrels a day in the months following any deal, traders say.
The remaining sticking points in Vienna are few but significant.
Negotiators worked overnight on Iran’s demand that International Atomic Energy Agency monitors end their investigation into its past atomic activities. Western diplomats rejected the offer, citing the watchdog’s independence.
The agency is holding a key board meeting on March 7, where Iran could face diplomatic censorship for its lack of cooperation with investigators trying to determine the origin of uranium particles detected on several undeclared sites.
“Safeguards are a fundamental part of the non-proliferation system and are distinct,” British negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq wrote on Twitter. “We will always reject any attempt to compromise the independence of the IAEA.”
The only way for the IAEA to conclude the Iran investigation quickly is for Iran to step up its cooperation, the agency’s director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in a press briefing on Wednesday. Grossi said he remains “optimistic” that a solution can be found that does not undermine his agency’s independence.
At the Munich security conference last month, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said it was essential that the IAEA continue to investigate Iran should the deal be revived. , which Israel opposes.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held talks this week with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The hardline government in Tehran has cultivated its ties with China and Russia and wants to develop long-term strategic alliances with the East, even if it reaches an agreement with world powers on the nuclear program.
In addition to the IAEA probe, negotiators remain mired over Iran’s demand for a US commitment to no longer abandon the 2015 nuclear deal, which capped Tehran’s activities in exchange for a easing of penalties.
The Trump administration unilaterally abandoned the deal four years ago and applied economic sanctions, prompting Iran to retaliate by enriching uranium near levels needed for a bomb.
“If negotiators fail to fill the remaining gaps, the best fallback option is a moratorium that avoids a perilous cycle of escalation,” said Ali Vaez, who leads Iran research at the International Crisis Group. . Iran could offer to freeze its most worrisome activities in return for partial sanctions relief, he said.
(Adds IAEA in 10th, Israel in 11th paragraph.)
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