United States go to war on Iran.

This conclusion seems inevitable when President Joe Biden fails to revive the Iran nuclear deal from which the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew in 2018. The Iranian side has demanded the removal of sanctions imposed by former President Donald Trump, as well as a guarantee that a future American administration will not once again abruptly pull out of the nuclear deal, known as JCPOA. While Iran has continued to abide by the minimum terms of the deal in order to preserve the possibility of bringing it back to life, Biden’s reluctance or inability to meet his terms has left observers warn of a scenario of the “Worst case” in which Iran militarizes its nuclear program and the two countries come to a full-fledged armed conflict.

It’s worth thinking about how both parties came to this. The nuclear deal brokered by the Obama administration was a way to avoid war by placing Iran’s nuclear program under international scrutiny in exchange for economic integration with the West. This deal was brutally torn apart by Trump, seemingly in a personal crisis against President Barack Obama, with encouragement from hawkish advisers and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead of a diplomatic arrangement, the Trump administration has waged a campaign of economic pressure, sabotage and assassinations targeting Iranian leaders.

These efforts have done great harm to innocent Iranians as well as to the diplomatic position of the United States. They didn’t do what the diplomatic deal did: actually curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran remains today under US sanctions which have seriously damaged its economy and plunged its people into despair. Its nuclear program, however, continued to advance. The failure or inability of the Biden administration to do the minimum to reverse Trump’s economic sanctions likely ended the old deal. In the absence of the 2015 nuclear deal, the only two options left on the table are for the international community to accept an Iran with nuclear weapons or go to war to stop it.

What’s really depressing is that while Biden wasn’t dragging his feet, it’s unclear whether the original deal was even reactivable after Trump showed the United States could turn on him without warning. . Western companies that expressed interest in investing in the Iranian market when the deal was first negotiated have been frightened, possibly for good. “Even if the JCPOA were re-established, no Western company would dare to invest a dime in Iran, no Western bank would fund a deal in Iran with the threat of the return of US sanctions in 2025. Once was enough. The Iranians know it ”, the former French diplomat Gérard Araud observed in a tweet.

In addition to its reluctance to lift Trump-era sanctions and its inability to make executive promises that bind future administrations, the Biden administration likely does not have the majority of votes it would need in the U.S. Senate to ratify the agreement as a treaty. This means the chances of another toss in 2025 are high if a Republican administration comes to power. Without the ability to secure the non-unreasonable demand that a signed agreement be honored, the United States faces the prospect of being structurally incapable of conducting the kind of complex diplomacy necessary to avert war or nuclear proliferation.

Regional powers are already sending strong signals that they are preparing for a major conflict on the issue.

In recent days, senior Israeli military officials have visited the headquarters of the US military’s central command for meetings which will report on the deteriorating situation with Iran. The Israeli defense establishment has been divided in its views on the Iranian nuclear issue, with some officials contradicting Netanyahu’s position that the deal is an unacceptable threat to Israeli security. But even Israeli officials who have said Iran is not on the verge of building a bomb have started to report airstrikes are now being considered, especially as it looks like the nuclear program may soon be over. released from the surveillance imposed by the original agreement. In addition to discussing strikes on nuclear targets in Iran, Israeli news reports this week claimed officials were even pushing their US counterparts to carry out strikes against Iranian targets elsewhere in the Middle East.

Overall, Iran is not completely free from blame for this predicament. His decision to make Israel his main villain in his public rhetoric despite the absence of any concrete territorial dispute between the two countries mired him in a serious conflict that he could have otherwise avoided. But the fact remains that the 2015 nuclear deal, which Iranian diplomats at the time called the first step towards broader conversations on areas of disagreement with the United States, was maintained on their side in the moment when Trump decided to tear it up and the Biden administration failed to reverse the measures taken by Trump. The answer to the question “What now?” Does not have easy or comforting answers.

The sclerotic nature of the foreign policy debate means that if and when a major war with Iran breaks out, including airstrikes, naval conflict, and possible ground operations involving US troops, most Americans will have forgotten. the triggering events that brought the two countries to this point, as well as those responsible for destroying a diplomatic deal designed to prevent bloodshed. After 20 years of conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia, Americans are clearly tired and eager to avoid further wars in the region. Despite their fatigue from the confrontation, their leaders seem determined to have one more – perhaps the greatest of all.